Five trends shaping the future of awarding and assessment

I recently attended the Future Trends in Awarding conference, which provided an important opportunity to step back from day-to-day delivery and look at the bigger picture of the skills and assessment sector.

I’m particularly interested in how labour market intelligence, policy direction and technological change interact, and where they don’t always agree. Attending the conference for the first time offered a valuable lens into these dynamics, as well as how quickly things are moving.

Across the sessions, five themes kept coming back. The sector is at a turning point, full of opportunity, but not without its uncertainties.

1. A labour market undergoing structural change

The labour market is not simply evolving but undergoing structural change.

Research shared during the event showed that by 2035, demand for lower-skilled roles is expected to continue to decline, while demand for higher-skilled and professional roles will increase. Alongside this shift, a significant proportion of existing roles are expected to change substantially or disappear altogether.

Between 1 and 3 million jobs are projected to be lost or significantly restructured over the coming decade, with a far larger number of roles changing in nature. This creates a clear challenge for the system: ensuring that individuals already in the workforce are supported to transition effectively, not just preparing new entrants.

Read more: Bridging the skills gap: Essential skills for driving real social mobility

2. Skills gaps are already bigger than you might think

One surprising fact I learned was the extent of the current skills mismatch within the labour market.

Around 13% of workers were identified as having substantial skills deficiencies, equating to approximately 3.7 million people. This figure is projected to rise to as many as 7 million by 2035 if current trends continue.

These gaps are not confined to entry-level roles. Professionals and managers are affected too. It’s a challenge that runs through the whole workforce.

At the same time, many people in lower-level roles have skills their jobs simply don’t draw on, pointing to a wider problem with how talent is recognised and used across the economy.

3. AI is already reshaping awarding and assessment

Artificial intelligence isn’t just something we need to consider in the future; it’s already reshaping the sector.

AI is influencing assessment design, qualification development, marking and quality assurance processes.

Examples from the conference included:

• Automated generation of assessment items using generative AI
• AI-supported marking and examiner assistance tools
• Computer vision applications for practical assessment verification
• AI-enabled feedback and learning support systems
• Accelerated qualification development cycles

But AI isn’t replacing professional judgement, only changing where and how it’s applied.

The idea of ‘human-in-the-loop’ systems is becoming central to how AI is governed in assessment. AI undertakes the processing and pattern recognition, while people stay in control of the decisions.

4. Why trust and credential integrity are now centre stage

As assessment becomes increasingly digital, trust is becoming more complex and more central.

The conversation is moving beyond just securing the assessment itself to thinking about the full “chain of trust”, including:

• Identity verification
• Assessment design and delivery
• Marking and moderation
• Certification
• Employer confidence in outcomes

What struck me was that things go wrong in the gaps between these stages, not within them.

In response, the sector is looking at verifiable digital credentials and blockchain-based certification to strengthen proof of achievement and biometric identity verification to make sure the right person is being assessed.

It’s also worth understanding the difference between digitised certificates and true digital credentials, the latter enabling full traceability and independent achievement verification.

Read more: How good governance strengthens awarding organisations

5. The shift towards modular credentials and lifelong learning

There is a gradual movement from fixed qualifications towards more modular and flexible credential frameworks. This includes a growing emphasis on:

• Stackable micro-credentials
• Lifelong learning pathways
• Portable skills recognition
• Greater fluidity between education and employment routes

Skills development is no longer linear, but continuous and iterative across working life.

In practice, this means learners will need to keep building and adding to their credentials throughout their careers, rather than treating qualifications as a one-time achievement. For awarding organisations, it signals a growing demand for shorter, stackable credentials that can be combined and recognised flexibly.

The skills and qualifications market is also increasingly international. UK awarding organisations are not just competing at home; they’re operating in a global market for talent and credentials. The challenges are greater, but so is the potential.

Read more: EPAO to AAO: Preparing for the apprenticeship assessment reform

What this means for the sector

The sector is at the intersection of three major forces:

• Structural change in the labour market
• The pace of change driven by AI
• Increasing demands around trust, identity and credential integrity

These forces are reinforcing one another and raising the bar for what awarding and assessment systems must deliver.

The implications are significant. The sector is not only responding to change but is actively being moulded by it.

We have an opportunity to not just adapt but actively shape what a modern assessment system should look like.

The most important question isn’t what’s changing. It’s whether the qualifications and assessment system can keep pace with a workforce that now needs to learn, adapt and reskill continuously.